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Shortbutstrong

Cv-19 when will it pass

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When do you think the corona virus passes and we go back to normal ?with the look at Italy Spain and others in Europe I think it’s all summer poissibly rest of the year. Friend of mine says come may well have forgotten all about it. 

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Just now, Shortbutstrong said:

When do you think the corona virus passes and we go back to normal ?with the look at Italy Spain and others in Europe I think it’s all summer poissibly rest of the year. Friend of mine says come may well have forgotten all about it. 

It’ll be around for month’s yet dude!

The lockdown simply eases the strain on hospitals nothing else.

We’ll all get it it’s just when and how bad.

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Realistically the government can't afford to have all businesses on lockdown longterm. They've offered bailout plans but that money isn't an infinite pot of gold. 

Once the peak has hit, in about 2/3 weeks those in the know will have isolated the hot spot areas and implemented more stringent measures there whilst reducing the lockdown in areas not so affected. I'm thinking travel between towns/cities will be restricted but if controlled now like it seems to be doing so I'd give it till around May when we are semi back to normal. 

Alot of the shops in my town have put signs up saying they'll be open again on 4th April but that seems abit too optimistic. 

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I have friends who work in General Hospitals and they are telling me every little bit of space they can find is being converted into bed space. Seems they are expecting an avalanche...

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The virus has to go around the world yet. Different countries will suffer at different times. Here in the UK I expect to see a peak in the beginning of June. Deaths and the number of infections are increasing here day by day.

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12 minutes ago, monkeybiker said:

No chance are things going to be back to normal by May. 

Perhaps not back to normal but lockdown restrictions lifted, more shops open but with 2m distancing and limits on numbers of people in at any one time. It relies on people being sensible which is the bit that is least unlikely 

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1 hour ago, Jackoffblades said:

Iv heard time and time again we won’t get rid off it until most of us have antibodies for it or the vaccine comes out but the vaccine will be atleast a year away

Well there’s basically only two possible outcomes

1 vaccine

2 enough people get infected to give us herd immunity 

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It's being exaggerated thats for sure. When you look at the numbers, there are a few THOUSAND cases. If we say there are 70+million people in the UK right now, 9533 cases have been identified. That's 0.020% of the population. When we talk about deaths it's 0.0010%. So the coronavirus so far has effected not even 1% of the population. And it's killed so little that it's several noughts of 1%. We would need 700,000 POSITIVE cases in the UK for it to have affected 1% of the entire population. At the moment that's not even the TOTAL number of cases in the world. The total number is about 500,000. It's probably rising but that's out of SEVERAL BILLION. So the percentage of people affected IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW is.... 0.0006%.

To put this into perspective, the Black Death, a real pandemic in the medieval ages, killed 70,000,000 to 200,000,000 people in 5 years. In terms of the UK that's the UK gone, no-one lives, or very very few.
Influenza, or the flu as it's known, kills 290,000 to 650,000 per year as per the yearly outbreak. We would need hundreds of thousands of people to die within the next year to compare this pandemic to anything historical that was severe enough to wipe out large parts of the population. The graphs/data don't lie, that's not going to happen. The total number of cases are increasing as are the deaths but in conjuction with a long term forecast, it would take several decades (10-20 years) for this virus to cause the damage others have done in the past.
Common examples of the flu causing serious damage is the Spanish flu in 1918 which killed at the lower end 15,000,000 people in 2 years. If we put that back into context with the UK, that's 21.42% of the entire population of the UK gone in 2 years. 2 years! That's some SERIOUS numbers and many of your friends and family would have died or people you knew and people they knew. That's going to have a serious effect on your community. Another example is the Chinese flu, lasting from around 1956 to 1958, killed 1-4 million people (depending on sources).

The coronavirus, if we determine by it's onset and first cases (roughly October/November 2019) has killed around 25,000 people. Most of these deaths are in those 80+ years old and with underlying, usually MULTIPLE, health conditions. Anyone upto aged 40 the numbers show 0.2% of likelihood of death pertaining to the coronavirus. The biggest factor is cardiovascular disease. 84% have recovered so far from the virus. 84%, not 14%, not 4%, 84% and that's because most have MILD symptoms of the virus which is similiar to the mild symptoms of the flu. 5% of total number of cases so far IN THE ENTIRE WORLD are critical. The growth factor of the virus has been diminishing for SEVERAL months and peaked in past months.

Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/timeseries/ukpop/pop

https://en.wikipedia.org

https://percentagecalculator.net/

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New study done at Oxford University reckons half of the UK may already have had it. They say it could have already been circulating for a month or so before identified. When you look at some of the celebs that have tested positive and have shown no symptoms of illness like Idris Elba and his wife and  I saw another study (I think Italy), it was only on 10 patients that tested positive but only 5 of them showed any symptoms. 

So who knows how many people have had/do have it, when a great number either have very mild or no symptoms at all. Numbers being tested in the UK is pathetically low, so won't get an anywhere near accurate infection rate anytime soo(if ever). But it is possible the 'herd immunity' point may have already been reached. 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

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Looking at the stats on Wikipedia most country's cases seems to peak around 6/8 weeks. Italy peeked at around 4/5 weeks and now the death rate is starting to fall in that country. It's also said that Germany has also peeked and are starting to come down. China peeked at around 8 weeks and it seems by the stats I'm looking at most countrys follow the same path.

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7 minutes ago, Lowkii said:

Looking at the stats on Wikipedia most country's cases seems to peak around 6/8 weeks. Italy peeked at around 4/5 weeks and now the death rate is starting to fall in that country. It's also said that Germany has also peeked and are starting to come down. China peeked at around 8 weeks and it seems by the stats I'm looking at most countrys follow the same path.

That’s because they locked down, when lockdown ends it’ll just start rising again

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Just now, paxman85. said:

That’s because they locked down, when lockdown ends it’ll just start rising again

South Korea ended there lockdown... No rises in cases for weeks.

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11 minutes ago, Lowkii said:

Looking at the stats on Wikipedia most country's cases seems to peak around 6/8 weeks. Italy peeked at around 4/5 weeks and now the death rate is starting to fall in that country. It's also said that Germany has also peeked and are starting to come down. China peeked at around 8 weeks and it seems by the stats I'm looking at most countrys follow the same path.

Italy just lost 919 in 24 hours...

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43 minutes ago, daringhorse said:

It's being exaggerated thats for sure. When you look at the numbers, there are a few THOUSAND cases. If we say there are 70+million people in the UK right now, 9533 cases have been identified. That's 0.020% of the population. When we talk about deaths it's 0.0010%. So the coronavirus so far has effected not even 1% of the population. And it's killed so little that it's several noughts of 1%. We would need 700,000 POSITIVE cases in the UK for it to have affected 1% of the entire population. At the moment that's not even the TOTAL number of cases in the world. The total number is about 500,000. It's probably rising but that's out of SEVERAL BILLION. So the percentage of people affected IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW is.... 0.0006%.

To put this into perspective, the Black Death, a real pandemic in the medieval ages, killed 70,000,000 to 200,000,000 people in 5 years. In terms of the UK that's the UK gone, no-one lives, or very very few.
Influenza, or the flu as it's known, kills 290,000 to 650,000 per year as per the yearly outbreak. We would need hundreds of thousands of people to die within the next year to compare this pandemic to anything historical that was severe enough to wipe out large parts of the population. The graphs/data don't lie, that's not going to happen. The total number of cases are increasing as are the deaths but in conjuction with a long term forecast, it would take several decades (10-20 years) for this virus to cause the damage others have done in the past.
Common examples of the flu causing serious damage is the Spanish flu in 1918 which killed at the lower end 15,000,000 people in 2 years. If we put that back into context with the UK, that's 21.42% of the entire population of the UK gone in 2 years. 2 years! That's some SERIOUS numbers and many of your friends and family would have died or people you knew and people they knew. That's going to have a serious effect on your community. Another example is the Chinese flu, lasting from around 1956 to 1958, killed 1-4 million people (depending on sources).

The coronavirus, if we determine by it's onset and first cases (roughly October/November 2019) has killed around 25,000 people. Most of these deaths are in those 80+ years old and with underlying, usually MULTIPLE, health conditions. Anyone upto aged 40 the numbers show 0.2% of likelihood of death pertaining to the coronavirus. The biggest factor is cardiovascular disease. 84% have recovered so far from the virus. 84%, not 14%, not 4%, 84% and that's because most have MILD symptoms of the virus which is similiar to the mild symptoms of the flu. 5% of total number of cases so far IN THE ENTIRE WORLD are critical. The growth factor of the virus has been diminishing for SEVERAL months and peaked in past months.

Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/timeseries/ukpop/pop

https://en.wikipedia.org

https://percentagecalculator.net/

The difference is this is the first time mass lockdowns have been used to actively control the spread of the virus.   Without these measures it would run its way through the entire global population in a a year or so killing a few 10s of millions (depending on the actual death rate).    It also had a doubling time of every 4-5 days without these resitircitions, so half a million now becomes a million in 5 days, 2 million in 10, 8 million in 20 days, 32 million in a month,  another month= over 2 billion,  obviously this is without all the measures put in place but it just to demonstrate how a relatively low % of the population being infected very quickly becomes much bigger.   The other issue is people take ages to die from the virus, average 20 days, but some people are taking up beds for 40+ days before dying so it’s very difficult for any country to possibly have enough beds for all the sick people if too many people become ill at one timep

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4 minutes ago, Lowkii said:

South Korea ended there lockdown... No rises in cases for weeks.

It seems to be growing  much less quickly there compared to the west,  perhaps due to cultural differences in the way we interact etc,  without these measures here we’d get f**ked pretty quickly

have a little look at that imperial study below, just look at the figures if you can’t be assed to read the actual thing

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-1

 

 

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3 minutes ago, paxman85. said:

It seems to be growing  much less quickly there compared to the west,  perhaps due to cultural differences in the way we interact etc,  without these measures here we’d get f**ked pretty quickly

have a little look at that imperial study below, just look at the figures if you can’t be assed to read the actual thing

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-1

 

 

And maybe due to climate differences as well... We can only hope that with summer on the horizon it will slow the spread. Look at Africa, hardly any cases.

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Many of the UK population still do not understand. Keep away from ANYONE that is not in your own household. Just yesterday I saw the neighbours son and daughter turn up in different cars and both go inside the house. Behaviour like this will result in proper Italy and China style lock down. I think the government are trying to do it yet give us enough freedom in order to carry out essential tasks, but people see that as a ticket to do what the f**k they like.

Morons

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35 minutes ago, Lowkii said:

Looking at the stats on Wikipedia most country's cases seems to peak around 6/8 weeks. Italy peeked at around 4/5 weeks and now the death rate is starting to fall in that country. It's also said that Germany has also peeked and are starting to come down. China peeked at around 8 weeks and it seems by the stats I'm looking at most countrys follow the same path.

Unfortunately Italy has had the most deaths from Corona Virus today than it ever has. 

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