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Shortbutstrong

Cv-19 when will it pass

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35 minutes ago, jake87 said:

Any danger of getting this in bullet points? 

I'm self employed and it's affecting us financially more than anything but until it turns into mad max out there and I start putting aris fencing over the windows on my civic with road pins sticking out from the bumper, I will stay at home because for all I know I could have it without knowing, casually go round my old dears house that could have diminishing respitory efficency from years of cleaning with iffy products that are probably banned now, and pass that s**t on to her and she won't be so lucky. 

If I am prepared to do that then so should everyone else. 

If you're self employed and run your own business and it falls to it's knees you were forewarned. And I say that compassionately seeing as it's awful how this entire thing is going on behind the scenes. I'm just thinking about the bigger picture mate, not the current hysteria. And it is hysteria. There's been 759 deaths in the UK so far. It sounds like a lot but it's not. It's not even a speck. And it will NEVER get to the point where our livelihoods collectively are at stake. So that means the number won't rise exponentionally and will probably reach a peak like many other countries, and then fade. In the meantime we blow up the economy, and not with untold amounts of wealth and prosperity. How will we the taxpayer repay what the government spends this time around? It's got to come from somewhere. Us. And while that happens newer legislations and new economic plans will come in via various avenues that change the way we live our lives and do business and spend money.

On the virus topic. You can't hide people from things like this. When the flu comes around we don't act like clingy naggy parents to everybody around us. We don't destroy our society and how it functions. People die and do you even care? Does anybody? We live in a narcissistic self indulgent self righteous world that values individual success over community success and stability. People will gladly self isolate while they believe they have a right to resources other families might be desperate over ie government resources, finances, material possessions, support of all kinds.

People were panic buying f*cking toilet roll. Just think about the poor family that genuinely needs to wipe the bottoms of their young children while some self centered pr*ck comes running in taking everything so they can stockpile it. Ah, but coronavirus! We're all in this together! Hold on, let me help you out while I also watch you drown. People are arguing over who gets into what car and when, what people do, where people are going and why. And we're helping one another and care? Get in a car and go down the motorway and guaranteed you'll soon end up in a road rage incident where people are willing to lose their mind and potentially their freedom over an accident that takes a mature and firm conversation like adults. Ah, the coronavirus makes us all friends again, right?

It's hysteria, and it's also psy-ops 101. Turn everyone against each other while pertaining to really be doing it for the benefit of society. The same society that queues at PC World and Argos on Black Friday to literally bludgeon each other over a few quid off of a TV that a few weeks down the line will be even cheaper.

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6 minutes ago, daringhorse said:

If you're self employed and run your own business and it falls to it's knees you were forewarned. And I say that compassionately seeing as it's awful how this entire thing is going on behind the scenes. I'm just thinking about the bigger picture mate, not the current hysteria. And it is hysteria. There's been 759 deaths in the UK so far. It sounds like a lot but it's not. It's not even a speck. And it will NEVER get to the point where our livelihoods collectively are at stake. So that means the number won't rise exponentionally and will probably reach a peak like many other countries, and then fade. In the meantime we blow up the economy, and not with untold amounts of wealth and prosperity. How will we the taxpayer repay what the government spends this time around? It's got to come from somewhere. Us. And while that happens newer legislations and new economic plans will come in via various avenues that change the way we live our lives and do business and spend money.

On the virus topic. You can't hide people from things like this. When the flu comes around we don't act like clingy naggy parents to everybody around us. We don't destroy our society and how it functions. People die and do you even care? Does anybody? We live in a narcissistic self indulgent self righteous world that values individual success over community success and stability. People will gladly self isolate while they believe they have a right to resources other families might be desperate over ie government resources, finances, material possessions, support of all kinds.

People were panic buying f*cking toilet roll. Just think about the poor family that genuinely needs to wipe the bottoms of their young children while some self centered pr*ck comes running in taking everything so they can stockpile it. Ah, but coronavirus! We're all in this together! Hold on, let me help you out while I also watch you drown. People are arguing over who gets into what car and when, what people do, where people are going and why. And we're helping one another and care? Get in a car and go down the motorway and guaranteed you'll soon end up in a road rage incident where people are willing to lose their mind and potentially their freedom over an accident that takes a mature and firm conversation like adults. Ah, the coronavirus makes us all friends again, right?

It's hysteria, and it's also psy-ops 101. Turn everyone against each other while pertaining to really be doing it for the benefit of society. The same society that queues at PC World and Argos on Black Friday to literally bludgeon each other over a few quid off of a TV that a few weeks down the line will be even cheaper.

What do you do for a living 

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I’m hoping it’s done and dusted soon want to go back to what I love! Staying in and cooperating with the government via lockdown, if everyone else does the same it can all pass as as quickly as possible hopefully. 

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Clearly the Government and the NHS see this as being far, far from over given the massive increase in NHS beds (not yet delivered) the massive orders for respirators (not yet delivered) and the commissioning of very sizeable facilities to use as large scales morgues (not yet delivered). It’s obvious they are under the impression things are going to get very, very bad for quite some time.

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49 minutes ago, daringhorse said:

If you're self employed and run your own business and it falls to it's knees you were forewarned. And I say that compassionately seeing as it's awful how this entire thing is going on behind the scenes. I'm just thinking about the bigger picture mate, not the current hysteria. And it is hysteria. There's been 759 deaths in the UK so far. It sounds like a lot but it's not. It's not even a speck. And it will NEVER get to the point where our livelihoods collectively are at stake. So that means the number won't rise exponentionally and will probably reach a peak like many other countries, and then fade. In the meantime we blow up the economy, and not with untold amounts of wealth and prosperity. How will we the taxpayer repay what the government spends this time around? It's got to come from somewhere. Us. And while that happens newer legislations and new economic plans will come in via various avenues that change the way we live our lives and do business and spend money.

On the virus topic. You can't hide people from things like this. When the flu comes around we don't act like clingy naggy parents to everybody around us. We don't destroy our society and how it functions. People die and do you even care? Does anybody? We live in a narcissistic self indulgent self righteous world that values individual success over community success and stability. People will gladly self isolate while they believe they have a right to resources other families might be desperate over ie government resources, finances, material possessions, support of all kinds.

People were panic buying f*cking toilet roll. Just think about the poor family that genuinely needs to wipe the bottoms of their young children while some self centered pr*ck comes running in taking everything so they can stockpile it. Ah, but coronavirus! We're all in this together! Hold on, let me help you out while I also watch you drown. People are arguing over who gets into what car and when, what people do, where people are going and why. And we're helping one another and care? Get in a car and go down the motorway and guaranteed you'll soon end up in a road rage incident where people are willing to lose their mind and potentially their freedom over an accident that takes a mature and firm conversation like adults. Ah, the coronavirus makes us all friends again, right?

It's hysteria, and it's also psy-ops 101. Turn everyone against each other while pertaining to really be doing it for the benefit of society. The same society that queues at PC World and Argos on Black Friday to literally bludgeon each other over a few quid off of a TV that a few weeks down the line will be even cheaper.

Your posts are nailed on accurate and insightful.

Kudos for the seeing through one of the greatest propaganda campaigns the world has ever seen.

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2 hours ago, daringhorse said:

If you're self employed and run your own business and it falls to it's knees you were forewarned. And I say that compassionately seeing as it's awful how this entire thing is going on behind the scenes. I'm just thinking about the bigger picture mate, not the current hysteria. And it is hysteria. There's been 759 deaths in the UK so far. It sounds like a lot but it's not. It's not even a speck. And it will NEVER get to the point where our livelihoods collectively are at stake. So that means the number won't rise exponentionally and will probably reach a peak like many other countries, and then fade. In the meantime we blow up the economy, and not with untold amounts of wealth and prosperity. How will we the taxpayer repay what the government spends this time around? It's got to come from somewhere. Us. And while that happens newer legislations and new economic plans will come in via various avenues that change the way we live our lives and do business and spend money.

On the virus topic. You can't hide people from things like this. When the flu comes around we don't act like clingy naggy parents to everybody around us. We don't destroy our society and how it functions. People die and do you even care? Does anybody? We live in a narcissistic self indulgent self righteous world that values individual success over community success and stability. People will gladly self isolate while they believe they have a right to resources other families might be desperate over ie government resources, finances, material possessions, support of all kinds.

People were panic buying f*cking toilet roll. Just think about the poor family that genuinely needs to wipe the bottoms of their young children while some self centered pr*ck comes running in taking everything so they can stockpile it. Ah, but coronavirus! We're all in this together! Hold on, let me help you out while I also watch you drown. People are arguing over who gets into what car and when, what people do, where people are going and why. And we're helping one another and care? Get in a car and go down the motorway and guaranteed you'll soon end up in a road rage incident where people are willing to lose their mind and potentially their freedom over an accident that takes a mature and firm conversation like adults. Ah, the coronavirus makes us all friends again, right?

It's hysteria, and it's also psy-ops 101. Turn everyone against each other while pertaining to really be doing it for the benefit of society. The same society that queues at PC World and Argos on Black Friday to literally bludgeon each other over a few quid off of a TV that a few weeks down the line will be even cheaper.

Why are you so convinced it won’t rise exponentially?  Countries where it peaked out was due to extreme lockdown/social distancing measures taken, the virus didn’t just hit a certain number them naturally decline.   It’s not like covid infects 100k people and then is like oh I’m done not gonna infect anymore people now

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17 minutes ago, paxman85. said:

Why are you so convinced it won’t rise exponentially?  Countries where it peaked out was due to extreme lockdown/social distancing measures taken, the virus didn’t just hit a certain number them naturally decline.   It’s not like covid infects 100k people and then is like oh I’m done not gonna infect anymore people now

People making stupid assumptions about how non-dangerous C-19 is are quickly proven wrong as the virus runs it's course and kills more and more people everyday. 

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17 minutes ago, EpicSquats said:

People making stupid assumptions about how non-dangerous C-19 is are quickly proven wrong as the virus runs it's course and kills more and more people everyday. 

I'm just trying to ignore these type of posts now. 

Ignore what the medical experts say cos Dave says we will all be fine.

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3 minutes ago, monkeybiker said:

I'm just trying to ignore these type of posts now. 

Ignore what the medical experts say cos Dave says we will all be fine.

I bet it was like that during the Plague. 

Some guy: We're getting it off each other! Let's separate!

Some idiot: No, it's the evil spirits! Just wear a crucifix and you''ll be fine!

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48 minutes ago, EpicSquats said:

People making stupid assumptions about how non-dangerous C-19 is are quickly proven wrong as the virus runs it's course and kills more and more people everyday. 

It's dangerous, 100%. But it won't be wiping out mankind, and it won't be wiping out the UK, and it won't be wiping out so many people that we go beyond 1% of the population. We're at not even two noughts of 1% of the UK population for the whole world where there have been deaths. In relation to past viruses of this magnitude (where many many many people died) it was killing 10-50,000 per month. And that brings a total of 600,000 deaths in a year. And this is a fairly low number on the scale up from other pandemics. It's well known the common flu kills around this many people each year. We would need 100,000-200,000 deaths per month in order to reach the same level the Chinese flu had. We would need a good million deaths per month to reach the level of the Spanish flu. And we are not talking decades here, we are talking a virus that was around for 1-2 year. According to the research, this virus came around last year, sometime between October-November. Therefore it's been here now for 5 months GLOBALLY, and we have had 24,095 deaths (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/). This equates to 4819 deaths per month, presuming we are dividing the total deaths by 5 for the 5 months it's been known (it could have even been earlier).

If we divide 24,095 by 3 (because most news reports are going off January for their first cases) it's a bit more, 8031 deaths per month. Sounds frightening. But for 12 months that is 96,372 deaths. If you do the numbers again to see if there's been an increase in deaths you'll see that 8031 x 3 = 24093. So if going off the numbers that would equate to 0.012% increase in those 3 months resulting in the extra 3 deaths. Again, maths doesn't lie, but your common sense will when you're facing extremely frightening and potentially life threatening stories.

435,554 active cases. 412,035 are mild. 23,519 are severe.
5 in every 1 million people in the US have died so far from coronavirus.
11 in every 1 million people in the UK have died so far.
China? Where it all apparently came from? 1 in every 1 million people died.

These are very small figures. Only to someone who believes the world is literally their own street and then the ASDA down the road would see those numbers and think the world is crashing down. The economy is, but that's planned anyway. Better to hide behind a 'natural' disaster this time instead of blaming Osama or Russia or those pesky investment bankers. Now we have a genuine reason to crash the economy, and everyone else is praising each other for living in their own temporary prison while clapping at the concrete and the paving slabs outside as if that makes things better. That's actually a good example of pretty serious hysteria. If you found me clapping out of my window on any other day I'd expect you to help me out because I'd probably be a little worse for wear, but today, it's completely fine. This behaviour is completely fine. Right? Hmmmm.
 

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25 minutes ago, EpicSquats said:

I bet it was like that during the Plague. 

Some guy: We're getting it off each other! Let's separate!

Some idiot: No, it's the evil spirits! Just wear a crucifix and you''ll be fine!

Today we have the toxic narcissistic and corrosive world of social media and the mainstream media. I'd rather have some medieval concoption thrown down my throat and prayers sang for me than Julie from group chat telling me if I like a post I'll save people in Africa from starvation. Also applies to the filter bubble where everything you want to see is deliberately made more visible so your reality is amplified whereas the outside world is usually completely different. There goes my fave TikTok viral videos! I really thought that's what life was all about! It's still the same stuff, it's just moulded into something that sells itself as more modern and superior because today we like to think we have seperated from the animal kingdom and we're beyond the frivolties of mankind.

Well, we still blow our tops when we're given a grossly exaggerated storyline like monkeys jumping at the swaying trees in the jungle. And we still go telling our friends and family about the evil spirits, only now they exist in Osama Bin Ladens hideout, in Saddams palace, in the Kremlin, in China, in prison, in poor communities and anywhere else where stigma, prejudice and false narratives can be planted. We were told marijuana was an evil spirit not so long ago. Fear the weed kids was the lingo being spewed by global governments, now it's been sold for profit by governments and making BILLIONS while it's legal in the one country that scorned it like the devil. The whole global policy on drugs are being changed which means all that paranoia, all that anxiety, all those deaths, all the persecution - was for nothing? America killed MILLIONS of it's own citizens for things they didn't have to kill them for? They put HUGE amounts of people in prison for crimes that aren't actually crimes? And that's just America. Kids in rural communities are still today scared of smoking a joint in case the stories their paranoid and uneducated parents tell them come true and they start to go crazy!

What did you say about those evil spirits again? ;)
Tell me what's the difference between medieval human society and modern society?
You'd be surprised to find out that only our technology has changed. Our external landscapes ie cities, towns, motorways, big businesses, airports, high tech cars, smartphones, computers, mass produced clothes, processed foods - all these are very new. But we... we are still naive, mindless and often sheepish creatures and it doesn't take us much to believe in those evil spirits, today they just take on different forms.

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What surprised me is how any qualified economists,  virologists, etc are out there. not to mention the 1000 x Edward Snowdon, Julian Assange with hard evidence of coverups and  conspiracies 

I really had no idea ...

They have been hiding as plain sight as council estate Dave with a YouTube channel with previous videos of "my neighbour pissed me off so I shat in his kettle". Who knew!

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So far cases seem to multiply quicker in cooler countries. Here in Thailand it seems to get people in Air conditioned environment. The worst day we have had is 180 cases, 121, 111,101,91 we are at 1200 or so when we has 30+ cases when the UK had 1.  We are almost on lock down here restaurants, cinemas, massage, bars all closed. because we have a culture of buying daily cooked food restaurants and food stalls can be take away only. if any public transport is running you must wear a mask. i went to the supermarket yesterday and had my temperature checked at the door and a squirt of hand sanitiser.

I suspect Africa may be even worse than anything we have seen so far

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27 minutes ago, JohhnyC said:

What surprised me is how any qualified economists,  virologists, etc are out there. not to mention the 1000 x Edward Snowdon, Julian Assange with hard evidence of coverups and  conspiracies 

I really had no idea ...

They have been hiding as plain sight as council estate Dave with a YouTube channel with previous videos of "my neighbour pissed me off so I shat in his kettle". Who knew!

it is interesting that they are going after Assange when the US constitution expressly protects the press in matters like this.

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2 hours ago, unclezillion said:

Here in Thailand it seems to get people in Air conditioned environment.

Same here, I'm Beijing, offices are becoming hot and stuff now.  Places starting to open back up though, restaurants coffee shops etc but you get temperature checked and often  need to show ID (register on an app) 

 

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6-12 weeks for lock down in U.K. 

international travel restricted for next 6-12 months

richer countries will be on top of it by end of summer but poorer countries won’t 

vaccine but summer 2021 to really stamp it out 

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6 hours ago, daringhorse said:

Today we have the toxic narcissistic and corrosive world of social media and the mainstream media. I'd rather have some medieval concoption thrown down my throat and prayers sang for me than Julie from group chat telling me if I like a post I'll save people in Africa from starvation. Also applies to the filter bubble where everything you want to see is deliberately made more visible so your reality is amplified whereas the outside world is usually completely different. There goes my fave TikTok viral videos! I really thought that's what life was all about! It's still the same stuff, it's just moulded into something that sells itself as more modern and superior because today we like to think we have seperated from the animal kingdom and we're beyond the frivolties of mankind.

Well, we still blow our tops when we're given a grossly exaggerated storyline like monkeys jumping at the swaying trees in the jungle. And we still go telling our friends and family about the evil spirits, only now they exist in Osama Bin Ladens hideout, in Saddams palace, in the Kremlin, in China, in prison, in poor communities and anywhere else where stigma, prejudice and false narratives can be planted. We were told marijuana was an evil spirit not so long ago. Fear the weed kids was the lingo being spewed by global governments, now it's been sold for profit by governments and making BILLIONS while it's legal in the one country that scorned it like the devil. The whole global policy on drugs are being changed which means all that paranoia, all that anxiety, all those deaths, all the persecution - was for nothing? America killed MILLIONS of it's own citizens for things they didn't have to kill them for? They put HUGE amounts of people in prison for crimes that aren't actually crimes? And that's just America. Kids in rural communities are still today scared of smoking a joint in case the stories their paranoid and uneducated parents tell them come true and they start to go crazy!

What did you say about those evil spirits again? ;)
Tell me what's the difference between medieval human society and modern society?
You'd be surprised to find out that only our technology has changed. Our external landscapes ie cities, towns, motorways, big businesses, airports, high tech cars, smartphones, computers, mass produced clothes, processed foods - all these are very new. But we... we are still naive, mindless and often sheepish creatures and it doesn't take us much to believe in those evil spirits, today they just take on different forms.

Bro do you even lift 

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1 hour ago, jake87 said:

Bro do you even lift 

He’s clearly very in tune with what’s going on in the world lol

So we should thank him for giving us this huge insight we had no clue about!

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9 minutes ago, LethweiUK said:

He’s clearly very in tune with what’s going on in the world lol

So we should thank him for giving us this huge insight we had no clue about!

Too many biftas and Michael Crichton books.... 

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9 hours ago, daringhorse said:

It's dangerous, 100%. But it won't be wiping out mankind, and it won't be wiping out the UK, and it won't be wiping out so many people that we go beyond 1% of the population. We're at not even two noughts of 1% of the UK population for the whole world where there have been deaths. In relation to past viruses of this magnitude (where many many many people died) it was killing 10-50,000 per month. And that brings a total of 600,000 deaths in a year. And this is a fairly low number on the scale up from other pandemics. It's well known the common flu kills around this many people each year. We would need 100,000-200,000 deaths per month in order to reach the same level the Chinese flu had. We would need a good million deaths per month to reach the level of the Spanish flu. And we are not talking decades here, we are talking a virus that was around for 1-2 year. According to the research, this virus came around last year, sometime between October-November. Therefore it's been here now for 5 months GLOBALLY, and we have had 24,095 deaths (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/). This equates to 4819 deaths per month, presuming we are dividing the total deaths by 5 for the 5 months it's been known (it could have even been earlier).

If we divide 24,095 by 3 (because most news reports are going off January for their first cases) it's a bit more, 8031 deaths per month. Sounds frightening. But for 12 months that is 96,372 deaths. If you do the numbers again to see if there's been an increase in deaths you'll see that 8031 x 3 = 24093. So if going off the numbers that would equate to 0.012% increase in those 3 months resulting in the extra 3 deaths. Again, maths doesn't lie, but your common sense will when you're facing extremely frightening and potentially life threatening stories.

435,554 active cases. 412,035 are mild. 23,519 are severe.
5 in every 1 million people in the US have died so far from coronavirus.
11 in every 1 million people in the UK have died so far.
China? Where it all apparently came from? 1 in every 1 million people died.

These are very small figures. Only to someone who believes the world is literally their own street and then the ASDA down the road would see those numbers and think the world is crashing down. The economy is, but that's planned anyway. Better to hide behind a 'natural' disaster this time instead of blaming Osama or Russia or those pesky investment bankers. Now we have a genuine reason to crash the economy, and everyone else is praising each other for living in their own temporary prison while clapping at the concrete and the paving slabs outside as if that makes things better. That's actually a good example of pretty serious hysteria. If you found me clapping out of my window on any other day I'd expect you to help me out because I'd probably be a little worse for wear, but today, it's completely fine. This behaviour is completely fine. Right? Hmmmm.
 

The way you’ve done these calculations averaging out the deaths per month shows a pretty poor understanding on the mathematics of epidemics.    You’ve not accounted for exponential growth at all in just dividing the total deaths by 3

if in January there’s 100 deaths globally

in February Theres 1000 deaths globally

in March there’s 10k deaths globally (these numbers are still pretty small right now to worry about right?)

april 100k deaths

may 1 million deaths

june 10 million deaths

july 100 million deaths....

Onviously the growth will slow down at some point as it hits the inflection point and runs out of people to infect so it won’t infect that many people in reality but it’s just to demonstrate how saying oh it’s only infected x number of people in y time so far so it’s not a big deal is a pretty stupid thing to do.

 

I recommend giving this video a watch if you struggle with the concept of exponential growth 

 

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A great visual representation of how Covid-19 compares to other pandemics and other major killers such as Alzheimers and strokes. ( Yes, it's early but at least we have some data to compare it to)

For example

Swine Flu 2009

60 million infected

Circa 300,000 deaths
 

Edit from the guy who made the above - "IMPORTANT EDIT: When I made this video, there had only been only one death outside China, and the rate of new cases was slowing down. Now (March 11th) there are 4,500 deaths (3K in China), and the rates are speeding up. That's why in this video, I had tried to convey that the epidemic was nothing to panic over. However, given that this is now a pandemic, I would STILL say not to panic, but I would no longer claim "COVID-19 kills less people than the generic flu so it's no big deal" (as I had in this video). The current trends suggest COVID-19 is still growing exponentially, so it's important to take actions (don't go to large gatherings, etc. You know them all already.) that can slow the spread of the disease. We gotta make sure health care services don't get overwhelmed, especially now that this is a big concern for at least a dozen countries. "

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3 minutes ago, paxman85. said:

The way you’ve done these calculations averaging out the deaths per month shows a pretty poor understanding on the mathematics of epidemics.    You’ve not accounted for exponential growth at all in just dividing the total deaths by free,

if in January there’s 100 deaths globally

in February Theres 1000 deaths globally

in March there’s 10k deaths globally (these numbers are still pretty small right now to worry about right?)

april 100k deaths

may 1 million deaths

june 10 million deaths

july 100 million deaths....

Onviously the growth will slow down at some point as it hits the inflection point and runs out of people to infect so it won’t infect that many people in reality but it’s just to demonstrate how saying oh it’s only infected x number of people in y time so far so it’s not a big deal is a pretty stupid thing to do.

 

I recommend giving this video a watch if you struggle with the concept of exponential growth 

 

Finally someone with a brain cell!

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